Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southport win with a probability of 48.12%. A win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 27.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southport win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.45%) and 0-2 (8.18%). The likeliest Alfreton Town win was 1-0 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
0.01) 
-0.01) 
