Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 45.81%. A win for Barnet had a probability of 30.6% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.94%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Barnet win was 1-2 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
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