Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a York City win with a probability of 47.34%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 27.79% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a York City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.09%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 0-1 (7.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that York City would win this match.
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