SM
| Current League C1 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sweden | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Estonia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Azerbaijan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Slovakia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League C1 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sweden | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Estonia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Azerbaijan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Slovakia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estonia win with a probability of 40.55%. A win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 34.16% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (6.61%). The likeliest Azerbaijan win was 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estonia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estonia | Draw | Azerbaijan |
40.55% ( -0.84) | 25.3% ( -0.15) | 34.16% ( 1) |
| Both teams to score 56.34% ( 0.78) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.67% ( 0.89) | 47.34% ( -0.89) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.45% ( 0.82) | 69.56% ( -0.82) |
| Estonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.83% ( -0.03) | 23.18% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.94% ( -0.04) | 57.06% ( 0.05) |
| Azerbaijan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.33% ( 1.05) | 26.67% ( -1.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.08% ( 1.36) | 61.92% ( -1.35) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estonia | Draw | Azerbaijan |
| 1-0 @ 9.04% ( -0.35) 2-1 @ 8.73% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 6.61% ( -0.26)3-1 @ 4.26% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 3.22% ( -0.13)3-2 @ 2.81% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 1.56% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.18% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.12% Total : 40.55% | 1-1 @ 11.94% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 6.18% ( -0.23)2-2 @ 5.77% ( 0.11)3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.29% | 0-1 @ 8.17% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 7.89% ( 0.16)0-2 @ 5.4% ( 0.12)1-3 @ 3.48% ( 0.17)2-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.12)0-3 @ 2.38% ( 0.12)1-4 @ 1.15% ( 0.09)Other @ 3.16% Total : 34.16% |
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