SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Glenavon | 5 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Ballymena United | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 11 | Portadown | 5 | -11 | 0 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Larne | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| 7 | Carrick Rangers | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Newry City AFC | 6 | -2 | 6 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ballymena United win with a probability of 41.04%. A win for Carrick Rangers had a probability of 33.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ballymena United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Carrick Rangers win was 0-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ballymena United | Draw | Carrick Rangers |
41.04% ( 1.7) | 25.47% ( -0.7) | 33.49% ( -1) |
| Both teams to score 55.58% ( 2.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.77% ( 2.83) | 48.24% ( -2.82) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.61% ( 2.54) | 70.39% ( -2.53) |
| Ballymena United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.68% ( 2.15) | 23.32% ( -2.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.73% ( 3.04) | 57.28% ( -3.03) |
| Carrick Rangers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.49% ( 0.75) | 27.51% ( -0.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.98% ( 0.96) | 63.02% ( -0.95) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ballymena United | Draw | Carrick Rangers |
| 1-0 @ 9.34% ( -0.5) 2-1 @ 8.77% ( 0.27)2-0 @ 6.8% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 4.26% ( 0.38)3-0 @ 3.3% ( 0.23)3-2 @ 2.75% ( 0.3)4-1 @ 1.55% ( 0.22)4-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.15)4-2 @ 1% ( 0.16)Other @ 2.07% Total : 41.04% | 1-1 @ 12.05% ( -0.39) 0-0 @ 6.42% ( -0.78)2-2 @ 5.66% ( 0.29)3-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.15)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.46% | 0-1 @ 8.28% ( -0.82) 1-2 @ 7.78% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 5.34% ( -0.4)1-3 @ 3.35% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.17)0-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.12)1-4 @ 1.08% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.93% Total : 33.49% |
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