SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Glenavon win with a probability of 46.08%. A win for Carrick Rangers had a probability of 27.92% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Glenavon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.13%) and 0-2 (8.38%). The likeliest Carrick Rangers win was 1-0 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Glenavon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Carrick Rangers | Draw | Glenavon |
27.92% ( 0.21) | 26% ( 0.02) | 46.08% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 51.21% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.31% ( 0.04) | 52.69% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.67% ( 0.03) | 74.33% ( -0.03) |
| Carrick Rangers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.35% ( 0.19) | 33.64% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.7% ( 0.2) | 70.29% ( -0.2) |
| Glenavon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.17% ( -0.09) | 22.83% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.45% ( -0.14) | 56.55% ( 0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Carrick Rangers | Draw | Glenavon |
| 1-0 @ 8.37% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 6.73% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 4.56% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 2.44% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.81% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.66% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.36% Total : 27.92% | 1-1 @ 12.35% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.68% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.97% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.98% Total : 25.99% | 0-1 @ 11.34% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 9.13% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 8.38% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 4.5% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 4.13% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.45% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.66% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.52% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 0.9% ( -0)Other @ 2.07% Total : 46.08% |
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