Leeds already look more assured defensively under Marsch and will possess a greater goal threat with Bamford back and raring to go, which spells optimism for the American coach ahead of his first home game.
However, Villa produced a near-perfect performance against a previously in-form Southampton side and will be in no mood to halt their hot streak, so we still expect Gerrard's men to get over the line.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 40.22%. A win for Leeds United had a probability of 33.65% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.61%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Leeds United win was 1-0 (8.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
