SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 39.38%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 36.24% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.75%) and 0-2 (5.91%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 2-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Arsenal | Draw | Manchester City |
36.24% ( -0.89) | 24.38% ( 0.29) | 39.38% ( 0.6) |
| Both teams to score 59.97% ( -1.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.22% ( -1.44) | 42.78% ( 1.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.82% ( -1.45) | 65.18% ( 1.45) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.64% ( -1.12) | 23.36% ( 1.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.67% ( -1.65) | 57.33% ( 1.65) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.25% ( -0.34) | 21.75% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.06% ( -0.52) | 54.93% ( 0.52) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arsenal | Draw | Manchester City |
| 2-1 @ 8.2% ( -0.1) 1-0 @ 7.39% ( 0.23)2-0 @ 5.37% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.97% ( -0.18)3-2 @ 3.03% ( -0.17)3-0 @ 2.6% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 1.44% ( -0.12)4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.18% Total : 36.24% | 1-1 @ 11.27% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 6.25% ( -0.14)0-0 @ 5.08% ( 0.32)3-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.38% | 1-2 @ 8.6% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 7.75% ( 0.41)0-2 @ 5.91% ( 0.26)1-3 @ 4.37% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.18% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 3.01% ( 0.1)1-4 @ 1.67% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 1.15% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.54% Total : 39.38% |
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