SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 88.88%. A draw had a probability of 7.6% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 3.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (9.68%) and 2-0 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.43%), while for a Luton Town win it was 1-2 (1.16%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Luton Town |
88.88% ( 0.17) | 7.58% ( -0.12) | 3.53% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 47.91% ( 0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 79.79% ( 0.41) | 20.21% ( -0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 61.61% ( 0.59) | 38.39% ( -0.59) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 97.22% ( 0.08) | 2.78% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 87.27% ( 0.29) | 12.73% ( -0.29) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.28% ( 0.18) | 50.71% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.85% ( 0.12) | 85.15% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Luton Town |
| 3-0 @ 10.8% ( -0.09) 4-0 @ 9.68% ( -0)2-0 @ 9.04% ( -0.15)3-1 @ 7.34% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 6.94% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 6.57% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 6.14% ( -0.07)1-0 @ 5.05% ( -0.12)5-1 @ 4.71% ( 0.06)6-0 @ 4.14% ( 0.07)6-1 @ 2.81% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 2.49% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.23% ( 0.02)7-0 @ 2.12% ( 0.05)5-2 @ 1.6% ( 0.03)7-1 @ 1.44% ( 0.04)6-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.02)8-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.87% Total : 88.88% | 1-1 @ 3.43% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 2.09% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 1.41% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.66% Total : 7.58% | 1-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 0.96% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.42% Total : 3.53% |
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