Even if Southampton can draw first blood on the South Coast, Palace are the masters at overcoming in-game adversity - gleaning a league-high 20 points from losing positions this term and coming from behind to win in both games under Hodgson so far.
The Saints can feel optimistic of nicking the odd goal, but a merciless Palace attack will no doubt take advantage of any uncertainty over Lavia's fitness, and we can only back the Eagles to continue their purple patch with a third win on the bounce.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crystal Palace win with a probability of 39.18%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 35.23% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crystal Palace win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (6.45%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-0 (8.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crystal Palace would win this match.
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