Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nizhny Novgorod win with a probability of 42.7%. A win for Ural Yekaterinburg had a probability of 29.02% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nizhny Novgorod win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.38%) and 2-1 (8.33%). The likeliest Ural Yekaterinburg win was 0-1 (10.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nizhny Novgorod in this match.
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