Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 41.99%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 32.31% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.85%) and 0-2 (7.13%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.
