Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 79.01%. A draw had a probability of 13.5% and a win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 7.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.62%) and 1-0 (8.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.33%), while for a Lokomotiv Moscow win it was 0-1 (2.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.
