Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 72.81%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 10.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.44%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.74%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 0-1 (3.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.
