Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 45.35%. A win for Lugo had a probability of 28.09% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.96%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest Lugo win was 0-1 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ponferradina in this match.

Result
Ponferradina	Draw	Lugo
45.35% ( 0.55)	26.56% ( -0.08)	28.09% ( -0.47)

Both teams to score 49.64% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.22% (

0.09)

54.78% (

-0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.91% (

0.07)

76.09% (

-0.07)

Ponferradina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.93% (

0.31)

24.07% (

-0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.64% (

0.44)

58.36% (

-0.44)

Lugo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.37% (

-0.32)

34.62% (

0.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.65% (

-0.34)

71.35% (

0.34)

Score Analysis

Ponferradina 45.35%

Lugo 28.09%

Draw 26.56%

Ponferradina	Draw	Lugo
1-0 @ 11.87% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 8.96% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 8.45% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 4.26% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 4.01% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.43% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.6% Total : 45.35%	1-1 @ 12.59% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 8.34% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.75% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.88% Total : 26.56%	0-1 @ 8.84% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 6.68% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 2.36% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.18% Total : 28.09%