Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 38.79%. A win for Burgos had a probability of 31.98% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.74%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Burgos win was 0-1 (11.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.

Result
Ponferradina	Draw	Burgos
38.79% ( 0.18)	29.22% ( -0.17)	31.98% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 43.85% (

0.44)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.12% (

0.54)

62.88% (

-0.54)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.62% (

0.39)

82.38% (

-0.39)

Ponferradina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.52% (

0.38)

31.47% (

-0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.14% (

0.44)

67.86% (

-0.44)

Burgos Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.99% (

0.29)

36.01% (

-0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.21% (

0.29)

72.79% (

-0.29)

Score Analysis

Ponferradina 38.79%

Burgos 31.98%

Draw 29.22%

Ponferradina	Draw	Burgos
1-0 @ 13.1% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 7.74% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 7.57% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.98% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 2.92% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.52% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.96% Total : 38.79%	1-1 @ 13.38% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 11.33% ( -0.23) 2-2 @ 3.95% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.56% Total : 29.22%	0-1 @ 11.57% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 6.83% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.33% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.98% Total : 31.98%