SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 38.79%. A win for Burgos had a probability of 31.98% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.74%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Burgos win was 0-1 (11.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ponferradina | Draw | Burgos |
38.79% ( 0.18) | 29.22% ( -0.17) | 31.98% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 43.85% ( 0.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.12% ( 0.54) | 62.88% ( -0.54) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.62% ( 0.39) | 82.38% ( -0.39) |
| Ponferradina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.52% ( 0.38) | 31.47% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.14% ( 0.44) | 67.86% ( -0.44) |
| Burgos Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.99% ( 0.29) | 36.01% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.21% ( 0.29) | 72.79% ( -0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ponferradina | Draw | Burgos |
| 1-0 @ 13.1% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 7.74% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 7.57% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.98% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 2.92% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.52% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.96% Total : 38.79% | 1-1 @ 13.38% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 11.33% ( -0.23)2-2 @ 3.95% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.56% Total : 29.22% | 0-1 @ 11.57% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 6.83% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.33% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.98% Total : 31.98% |
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