SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 46.33%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 27.23% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (8.69%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 0-1 (8.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bari | Draw | Cagliari |
46.33% ( 0.1) | 26.45% ( -0.04) | 27.23% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 49.38% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.17% ( 0.1) | 54.83% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.87% ( 0.08) | 76.13% ( -0.08) |
| Bari Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.36% ( 0.09) | 23.63% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.27% ( 0.13) | 57.73% ( -0.13) |
| Cagliari Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.66% ( 0) | 35.34% |
