Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pisa win with a probability of 60.97%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Como had a probability of 16.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pisa win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.76%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.65%), while for a Como win it was 0-1 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pisa would win this match.
