Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benevento win with a probability of 48.14%. A win for Pisa had a probability of 26.61% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benevento win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Pisa win was 0-1 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benevento would win this match.
