Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezia win with a probability of 43.68%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 29.95% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Venezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest SPAL win was 0-1 (8.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Venezia would win this match.
0.39) 
-0.44) 
