Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ternana win with a probability of 56.99%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Alessandria had a probability of 18.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ternana win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.25%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for an Alessandria win it was 0-1 (6.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ternana would win this match.
