Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 39.69%. A win for Crotone had a probability of 32.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (7.29%). The likeliest Crotone win was 1-0 (10.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
