Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 36.35%. A win for Danubio had a probability of 34.42% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.47%) and 0-2 (6.95%). The likeliest Danubio win was 1-0 (12.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
