SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Penarol | 15 | 4 | 26 |
| 6 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | Fenix | 15 | -1 | 23 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Liverpool | 15 | 13 | 32 |
| 2 | Nacional | 15 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 6 | 27 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 49.05%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 22.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.45%) and 1-2 (8.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.66%), while for a Danubio win it was 1-0 (9.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Danubio | Draw | Nacional |
22.64% ( 0.49) | 28.31% ( 0.29) | 49.05% ( -0.78) |
| Both teams to score 40.66% ( -0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.97% ( -0.51) | 64.02% ( 0.51) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.8% ( -0.36) | 83.2% ( 0.36) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.29% ( 0.2) | 44.71% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.3% ( 0.16) | 80.7% ( -0.16) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.55% ( -0.61) | 26.45% ( 0.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.37% ( -0.83) | 61.63% ( 0.82) |
| Score Analysis |
| Danubio | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 9.52% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 5.1% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 3.83% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 1.37% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 0.91% ( 0)Other @ 0.89% Total : 22.64% | 1-1 @ 12.66% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 11.82% ( 0.22)2-2 @ 3.39% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.43% Total : 28.3% | 0-1 @ 15.72% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 10.45% ( -0.17)1-2 @ 8.42% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 4.64% ( -0.16)1-3 @ 3.73% ( -0.11)0-4 @ 1.54% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.8% Total : 49.04% |
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