Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plaza Colonia win with a probability of 40.46%. A win for Danubio had a probability of 31.08% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Danubio win was 0-1 (10.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
