SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 15 | -16 | 12 |
| 15 | Cerrito | 15 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 | Albion | 15 | -15 | 11 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Rentistas | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 12 | Plaza Colonia | 15 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Montevideo City Torque | 15 | -4 | 13 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plaza Colonia win with a probability of 42.05%. A win for Cerrito had a probability of 30.08% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plaza Colonia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.41%) and 0-2 (8.06%). The likeliest Cerrito win was 1-0 (10.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cerrito | Draw | Plaza Colonia |
30.08% ( -0.7) | 27.87% ( -0.05) | 42.05% ( 0.75) |
| Both teams to score 46.92% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.24% ( -0.03) | 58.75% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.72% ( -0.02) | 79.28% ( 0.02) |
| Cerrito Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.79% ( -0.54) | 35.21% ( 0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.03% ( -0.57) | 71.96% ( 0.56) |
| Plaza Colonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.42% ( 0.4) | 27.57% ( -0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.9% ( 0.51) | 63.09% ( -0.52) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerrito | Draw | Plaza Colonia |
| 1-0 @ 10.13% ( -0.14) 2-1 @ 6.81% ( -0.12)2-0 @ 5.29% ( -0.15)3-1 @ 2.37% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 1.84% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.1% Total : 30.07% | 1-1 @ 13.05% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 9.71% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.71% Total : 27.86% | 0-1 @ 12.5% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 8.41% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 8.06% ( 0.19)1-3 @ 3.61% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 3.46% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.84% Total : 42.04% |
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