SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Liverpool | 15 | 13 | 32 |
| 2 | Nacional | 15 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 6 | 27 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 15 | -16 | 12 |
| 15 | Cerrito | 15 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 | Albion | 15 | -15 | 11 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 58.99%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Cerrito had a probability of 17.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.13%) and 2-1 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%), while for a Cerrito win it was 0-1 (6.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Cerrito |
58.99% ( -1.16) | 23.99% ( 0.82) | 17.02% ( 0.34) |
| Both teams to score 43.81% ( -1.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.39% ( -2.5) | 55.61% ( 2.49) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.23% ( -2.08) | 76.77% ( 2.08) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.34% ( -1.34) | 18.66% ( 1.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.01% ( -2.29) | 49.99% ( 2.29) |
| Cerrito Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.86% ( -1.05) | 46.13% ( 1.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.17% ( -0.82) | 81.82% ( 0.82) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Cerrito |
| 1-0 @ 14.45% ( 0.76) 2-0 @ 12.13% ( 0.13)2-1 @ 9.39% ( -0.18)3-0 @ 6.79% ( -0.23)3-1 @ 5.25% ( -0.34)4-0 @ 2.85% ( -0.23)4-1 @ 2.2% ( -0.24)3-2 @ 2.03% ( -0.19)5-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.12)Other @ 2.94% Total : 58.98% | 1-1 @ 11.18% ( 0.28) 0-0 @ 8.61% ( 0.8)2-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.18)Other @ 0.57% Total : 23.99% | 0-1 @ 6.66% ( 0.44) 1-2 @ 4.33% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.58% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.41% Total : 17.02% |
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