SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 63.71%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 13.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.03%) and 2-1 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.35%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 0-1 (6.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Cerro Largo |
63.71% ( -0.02) | 23.01% ( -0.09) | 13.28% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 38.65% ( 0.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.96% ( 0.45) | 58.04% ( -0.45) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.28% ( 0.35) | 78.72% ( -0.35) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.15% ( 0.16) | 17.84% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.4% ( 0.27) | 48.6% ( -0.27) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.04% ( 0.44) | 52.96% ( -0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.38% ( 0.28) | 86.62% ( -0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Cerro Largo |
| 1-0 @ 16.28% ( -0.2) 2-0 @ 14.03% ( -0.1)2-1 @ 8.92% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 8.06% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.13% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 3.47% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.21% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.63% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.77% Total : 63.7% | 1-1 @ 10.35% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.45% ( -0.16)2-2 @ 2.84% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.37% Total : 23.01% | 0-1 @ 6.01% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.08% Total : 13.28% |
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