SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Albion | 16 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | Plaza Colonia | 15 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Cerro Largo | 16 | -16 | 13 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 16 | 6 | 28 |
| 4 | Boston River | 15 | 4 | 27 |
| 5 | Penarol | 16 | 3 | 26 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plaza Colonia win with a probability of 39.33%. A win for Boston River had a probability of 31.31% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.75%) and 2-1 (7.74%). The likeliest Boston River win was 0-1 (11.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Plaza Colonia | Draw | Boston River |
39.33% ( -0.07) | 29.36% ( -0.02) | 31.31% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 43.32% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.55% ( 0.08) | 63.44% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.21% ( 0.05) | 82.79% ( -0.06) |
| Plaza Colonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.56% ( -0.01) | 31.43% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.19% ( -0) | 67.81% ( -0) |
| Boston River Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.17% ( 0.11) | 36.82% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.39% ( 0.11) | 73.61% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Plaza Colonia | Draw | Boston River |
| 1-0 @ 13.39% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 7.75% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 7.74% 3-0 @ 2.99% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.99% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.49% ( 0)Other @ 2.97% Total : 39.32% | 1-1 @ 13.38% 0-0 @ 11.57% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 3.87% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.54% Total : 29.35% | 0-1 @ 11.56% 1-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.78% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.92% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.84% Total : 31.3% |
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