SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 29 | 5 | 46 |
| 5 | River Plate | 28 | 10 | 45 |
| 6 | Penarol | 28 | 8 | 45 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Penarol | 28 | 8 | 45 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 28 | 4 | 45 |
| 8 | Danubio | 29 | 6 | 44 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 38.17%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 32.35% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.6%) and 0-2 (7.47%). The likeliest River Plate win was 1-0 (11.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Defensor Sporting in this match.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
32.35% ( 0.02) | 29.49% ( 0.29) | 38.17% ( -0.31) |
| Both teams to score 43.24% ( -0.77) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.34% ( -0.93) | 63.66% ( 0.94) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.06% ( -0.67) | 82.94% ( 0.68) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.83% ( -0.49) | 36.17% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.05% ( -0.5) | 72.95% ( 0.51) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.75% ( -0.67) | 32.25% ( 0.67) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.25% ( -0.76) | 68.75% ( 0.77) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 11.86% ( 0.25) 2-1 @ 6.83% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 6.03% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 2.31% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 2.05% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.96% Total : 32.34% | 1-1 @ 13.42% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 11.66% ( 0.4)2-2 @ 3.86% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.53% Total : 29.47% | 0-1 @ 13.2% ( 0.22) 1-2 @ 7.6% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 7.47% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.86% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.77% Total : 38.17% |
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