SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Danubio | 28 | 3 | 41 |
| 9 | Montevideo Wanderers | 28 | 6 | 40 |
| 10 | Fenix | 28 | -3 | 39 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 28 | 4 | 45 |
| 8 | Danubio | 28 | 3 | 41 |
| 9 | Montevideo Wanderers | 28 | 6 | 40 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 37.13%. A win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 32.96% and a draw had a probability of 29.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.36%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 (12.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.48%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Danubio would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Danubio |
32.96% ( -0.17) | 29.91% ( 0.55) | 37.13% ( -0.37) |
| Both teams to score 42.23% ( -1.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.07% ( -1.75) | 64.93% ( 1.76) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.16% ( -1.24) | 83.84% ( 1.25) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.58% ( -1.08) | 36.42% ( 1.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.79% ( -1.11) | 73.21% ( 1.11) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.42% ( -1.15) | 33.58% ( 1.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.78% ( -1.28) | 70.22% ( 1.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Danubio |
| 1-0 @ 12.35% ( 0.44) 2-1 @ 6.81% ( -0.17)2-0 @ 6.24% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 2.29% ( -0.13)3-0 @ 2.1% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.11)Other @ 1.92% Total : 32.96% | 1-1 @ 13.48% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 12.23% ( 0.78)2-2 @ 3.71% ( -0.22)Other @ 0.49% Total : 29.91% | 0-1 @ 13.34% ( 0.44) 1-2 @ 7.36% ( -0.2)0-2 @ 7.28% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.68% ( -0.16)0-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.13)Other @ 2.47% Total : 37.13% |
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