SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 64.44%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 12.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (14.09%) and 1-2 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.21%), while for a Fenix win it was 1-0 (5.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fenix | Draw | Nacional |
12.98% ( -2.19) | 22.59% ( -0.83) | 64.44% ( 3.01) |
| Both teams to score 38.95% ( -2.79) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.83% ( -0.84) | 57.16% ( 0.84) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.97% ( -0.67) | 78.03% ( 0.67) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.08% ( -3.85) | 52.92% ( 3.84) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.4% ( -2.59) | 86.6% ( 2.59) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.73% ( 0.76) | 17.27% ( -0.77) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.4% ( 1.33) | 47.6% ( -1.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fenix | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 5.82% ( -0.48) 2-1 @ 3.25% ( -0.59)2-0 @ 1.85% ( -0.39)Other @ 2.06% Total : 12.98% | 1-1 @ 10.21% ( -0.58) 0-0 @ 9.14% ( 0.29)2-2 @ 2.85% ( -0.44)Other @ 0.38% Total : 22.58% | 0-1 @ 16.05% ( 0.89) 0-2 @ 14.09% ( 1.11)1-2 @ 8.97% ( -0.27)0-3 @ 8.25% ( 0.84)1-3 @ 5.25% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 3.62% ( 0.45)1-4 @ 2.31% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.21)0-5 @ 1.27% ( 0.18)Other @ 2.95% Total : 64.43% |
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