SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 58.99%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 17.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.91%) and 1-2 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.13%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 1-0 (6.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Nacional in this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Nacional |
17.26% ( -0.98) | 23.74% ( -0.06) | 58.99% ( 1.04) |
| Both teams to score 44.9% ( -1.56) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.6% ( -1.14) | 54.39% ( 1.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.23% ( -0.96) | 75.77% ( 0.96) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.89% ( -1.88) | 45.1% ( 1.88) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.98% ( -1.54) | 81.02% ( 1.54) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.79% ( -0.04) | 18.21% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.78% ( -0.07) | 49.22% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 6.54% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 4.43% ( -0.28)2-0 @ 2.6% ( -0.16)3-1 @ 1.18% ( -0.14)3-2 @ 1% ( -0.12)Other @ 1.51% Total : 17.26% | 1-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 8.21% ( 0.36)2-2 @ 3.78% ( -0.24)Other @ 0.62% Total : 23.74% | 0-1 @ 13.98% ( 0.59) 0-2 @ 11.91% ( 0.49)1-2 @ 9.49% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 6.77% ( 0.27)1-3 @ 5.39% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 2.88% ( 0.11)1-4 @ 2.29% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.14% ( -0.14)0-5 @ 0.98% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.24% Total : 58.98% |
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