SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 17 | San Lorenzo | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 18 | Lanus | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 | Arsenal Sarandi | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | River Plate | 15 | 5 | 21 |
| 9 | Montevideo Wanderers | 15 | 5 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | -2 | 20 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 44.46%. A win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 30.52% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Lanus | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
44.46% ( 0.01) | 25.02% ( 0) | 30.52% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 55.89% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.69% ( -0.03) | 47.31% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.47% ( -0.03) | 69.53% ( 0.03) |
| Lanus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.7% ( -0.01) | 21.3% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.76% ( -0.02) | 54.24% ( 0.02) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.02% ( -0.02) | 28.98% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.12% ( -0.03) | 64.88% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lanus | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 9.55% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.14% 2-0 @ 7.38% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.71% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.81% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.92% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.82% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.47% 4-2 @ 1.13% ( -0)Other @ 2.54% Total : 44.46% | 1-1 @ 11.82% 0-0 @ 6.17% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.66% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.21% ( -0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.02% | 0-1 @ 7.65% ( 0) 1-2 @ 7.32% ( -0)0-2 @ 4.74% 1-3 @ 3.02% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.34% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.96% ( -0)1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0)Other @ 2.56% Total : 30.52% |
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