SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Boston River | 27 | 10 | 48 |
| 4 | Penarol | 26 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | River Plate | 26 | 11 | 42 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Montevideo Wanderers | 27 | 7 | 40 |
| 8 | Danubio | 26 | 3 | 39 |
| 9 | Defensor Sporting | 26 | 2 | 39 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.02%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 23.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (8.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.86%), while for a Danubio win it was 0-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Danubio |
47.02% ( 0.14) | 29.15% ( -0.11) | 23.83% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 39.78% ( 0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.27% ( 0.28) | 65.73% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.6% ( 0.2) | 84.4% ( -0.19) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.71% ( 0.21) | 28.29% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.99% ( 0.27) | 64.01% ( -0.27) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.47% ( 0.13) | 44.53% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.44% ( 0.11) | 80.56% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Danubio |
| 1-0 @ 15.9% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 10.04% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 8.13% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.23% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 3.42% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.38% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.5% Total : 47.01% | 1-1 @ 12.86% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 12.59% ( -0.13)2-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.4% Total : 29.13% | 0-1 @ 10.19% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 5.21% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.12% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.4% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.11% ( 0)Other @ 1.8% Total : 23.83% |
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