SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 52.85%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for La Luz had a probability of 20.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%), while for a La Luz win it was 0-1 (8.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | La Luz |
52.85% ( -0.57) | 26.42% ( 0.2) | 20.74% ( 0.36) |
| Both teams to score 43.15% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.35% ( -0.32) | 59.65% ( 0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.03% ( -0.24) | 79.97% ( 0.25) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.25% ( -0.38) | 22.75% ( 0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.57% ( -0.57) | 56.43% ( 0.57) |
| La Luz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.85% ( 0.21) | 44.15% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.76% ( 0.17) | 80.24% ( -0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | La Luz |
| 1-0 @ 14.87% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 11% ( -0.12)2-1 @ 9% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 5.43% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 4.44% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 2.01% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 1.82% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.64% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.62% Total : 52.84% | 1-1 @ 12.15% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 10.04% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 3.68% ( 0)Other @ 0.53% Total : 26.4% | 0-1 @ 8.21% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 4.97% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 3.36% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.92% Total : 20.74% |
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