Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plaza Colonia win with a probability of 40.79%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 32.82% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plaza Colonia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.63%) and 0-2 (7.16%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (9.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
