SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 42.29%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 30.11% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 (9.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
42.29% ( 0.86) | 27.6% ( -0.36) | 30.11% ( -0.51) |
| Both teams to score 47.7% ( 0.81) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.23% ( 1.12) | 57.77% ( -1.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.49% ( 0.87) | 78.51% ( -0.88) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.01% ( 0.99) | 26.98% ( -1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.67% ( 1.29) | 62.33% ( -1.29) |
| Deportivo Maldonado Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.33% ( 0.21) | 34.66% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.61% ( 0.23) | 71.38% ( -0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 1-0 @ 12.25% ( -0.18) 2-1 @ 8.5% ( 0.17)2-0 @ 8.02% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 3.71% ( 0.17)3-0 @ 3.5% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 1.22% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.08)Other @ 1.97% Total : 42.29% | 1-1 @ 12.98% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 9.35% ( -0.41)2-2 @ 4.5% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.76% Total : 27.6% | 0-1 @ 9.91% ( -0.37) 1-2 @ 6.88% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.16)1-3 @ 2.43% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.2% Total : 30.11% |
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