Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Haverfordwest County win with a probability of 43.19%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 33.01% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Haverfordwest County win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.66%) and 0-2 (6.33%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 2-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Haverfordwest County would win this match.
