SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 39.05%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 38.3% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.71%) and 0-2 (4.88%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 2-1 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
38.3% ( 1.07) | 22.65% ( -0.27) | 39.05% ( -0.8) |
| Both teams to score 66.78% ( 1.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.99% ( 1.44) | 34.01% ( -1.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.13% ( 1.61) | 55.87% ( -1.61) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.55% ( 1.13) | 18.45% ( -1.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.37% ( 1.87) | 49.63% ( -1.86) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.88% ( 0.27) | 18.12% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.93% ( 0.45) | 49.07% ( -0.45) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 2-1 @ 8.16% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 5.65% ( -0.22)2-0 @ 4.78% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.6% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 3.93% ( 0.19)3-0 @ 2.69% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 1.94% ( 0.14)4-2 @ 1.66% ( 0.14)4-0 @ 1.14% ( 0.08)4-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.83% Total : 38.3% | 1-1 @ 9.65% ( -0.29) 2-2 @ 6.97% ( 0.1)0-0 @ 3.34% ( -0.26)3-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.13)Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.65% | 1-2 @ 8.24% ( -0.17) 0-1 @ 5.71% ( -0.38)0-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.28)1-3 @ 4.69% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 3.97% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.14)1-4 @ 2% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.69% ( 0.05)0-4 @ 1.19% ( -0.05)3-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.95% Total : 39.05% |
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