SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bala Town win with a probability of 77%. A draw had a probability of 15% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 8.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bala Town win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.86%) and 1-0 (10.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.12%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 0-1 (2.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bala Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bala Town | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
77% ( 0.03) | 14.97% ( -0.01) | 8.04% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 44.89% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.08% ( 0.04) | 38.92% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.76% ( 0.05) | 61.24% ( -0.04) |
| Bala Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.65% ( 0.02) | 8.35% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.92% ( 0.04) | 29.08% ( -0.03) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.98% ( 0.01) | 51.02% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.64% ( 0.01) | 85.36% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bala Town | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 2-0 @ 13.13% 3-0 @ 10.86% 1-0 @ 10.57% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 8.84% ( -0)3-1 @ 7.31% ( 0)4-0 @ 6.75% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 4.54% ( 0)5-0 @ 3.35% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.46% ( 0)5-1 @ 2.26% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.53% ( 0)6-0 @ 1.39% ( 0)6-1 @ 0.93% ( 0)Other @ 3.07% Total : 76.98% | 1-1 @ 7.12% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.26% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 2.97% Other @ 0.61% Total : 14.97% | 0-1 @ 2.87% ( -0) 1-2 @ 2.4% ( -0)0-2 @ 0.96% ( -0)Other @ 1.81% Total : 8.04% |
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