SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bala Town win with a probability of 63.91%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 16.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bala Town win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.92%) and 0-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.41%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 2-1 (4.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bala Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Bala Town |
16.08% ( 0.08) | 20.02% ( 0.18) | 63.91% ( -0.26) |
| Both teams to score 54.01% ( -0.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.06% ( -0.69) | 40.94% ( 0.69) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.67% ( -0.7) | 63.33% ( 0.71) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.47% ( -0.32) | 38.53% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.72% ( -0.31) | 75.28% ( 0.31) |
| Bala Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.86% ( -0.27) | 12.14% ( 0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.26% ( -0.58) | 37.74% ( 0.59) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Bala Town |
| 2-1 @ 4.49% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 4.46% ( 0.1)2-0 @ 2.13% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 1.43% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.07% Total : 16.08% | 1-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 4.73% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 4.68% ( 0.15)3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.15% Total : 20.02% | 0-2 @ 10.39% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 9.92% ( 0.01)0-1 @ 9.86% ( 0.2)0-3 @ 7.31% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 6.97% ( -0.07)0-4 @ 3.85% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 3.68% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 3.32% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 1.75% ( -0.05)0-5 @ 1.63% ( -0.04)1-5 @ 1.55% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.67% Total : 63.9% |
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