Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 70.96%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 10.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.12%) and 3-0 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.64%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 0-1 (3.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caernarfon Town would win this match.
