SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 44.9%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 30.09% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (7.48%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 0-1 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pen-y-Bont would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Pen-y-Bont | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
44.9% ( 3.94) | 25% ( -0.76) | 30.09% ( -3.19) |
| Both teams to score 55.74% ( 1.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.6% ( 2.14) | 47.4% ( -2.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.38% ( 1.95) | 69.61% ( -1.96) |
| Pen-y-Bont Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.85% ( 2.79) | 21.14% ( -2.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46% ( 4.17) | 53.99% ( -4.17) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.68% ( -1.04) | 29.31% ( 1.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.71% ( -1.29) | 65.29% ( 1.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Pen-y-Bont | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
| 1-0 @ 9.63% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.18% ( 0.44)2-0 @ 7.48% ( 0.56)3-1 @ 4.76% ( 0.59)3-0 @ 3.88% ( 0.58)3-2 @ 2.92% ( 0.29)4-1 @ 1.85% ( 0.36)4-0 @ 1.51% ( 0.33)4-2 @ 1.13% ( 0.19)Other @ 2.57% Total : 44.9% | 1-1 @ 11.81% ( -0.41) 0-0 @ 6.2% ( -0.57)2-2 @ 5.63% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.99% | 0-1 @ 7.6% ( -0.94) 1-2 @ 7.25% ( -0.47)0-2 @ 4.67% ( -0.73)1-3 @ 2.97% ( -0.28)2-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.37)1-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.12)Other @ 2.49% Total : 30.09% |
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