SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Haverfordwest County win with a probability of 49.2%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 26.88% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Haverfordwest County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.37%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (6.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Haverfordwest County | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
49.2% ( -0.27) | 23.92% ( 0.03) | 26.88% ( 0.24) |
| Both teams to score 57.07% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.38% ( 0.06) | 44.62% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.01% ( 0.05) | 66.99% ( -0.05) |
| Haverfordwest County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.76% ( -0.08) | 18.24% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.73% ( -0.14) | 49.27% ( 0.14) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.79% ( 0.21) | 30.21% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.63% ( 0.25) | 66.37% ( -0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Haverfordwest County | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.55% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 9.37% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 7.98% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 5.42% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 4.53% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 3.24% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.31% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.93% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.38% ( -0)Other @ 3.51% Total : 49.2% | 1-1 @ 11.22% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.72% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 5.51% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.92% | 1-2 @ 6.72% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 6.59% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 3.95% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 2.68% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.28% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.58% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.09% Total : 26.88% |
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