SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Haverfordwest County win with a probability of 52.18%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 25.09% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Haverfordwest County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (6.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Haverfordwest County | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
52.18% ( 0.1) | 22.73% ( -0.02) | 25.09% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 59.4% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.25% ( 0.01) | 40.75% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.86% ( 0.01) | 63.13% ( -0.02) |
| Haverfordwest County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.3% ( 0.03) | 15.7% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.23% ( 0.07) | 44.77% ( -0.07) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.46% ( -0.06) | 29.54% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.44% ( -0.07) | 65.56% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Haverfordwest County | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.69% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.59% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.95% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 5.98% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.91% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.65% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.77% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.27% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.69% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.03% ( 0)Other @ 3.66% Total : 52.18% | 1-1 @ 10.47% 2-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.64% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.48% ( -0)Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.73% | 1-2 @ 6.39% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.66% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.45% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.6% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.2% Total : 25.09% |
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