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World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Oct 13, 2023 at 12am UK
Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti
PN

Argentina
1 - 0
Paraguay

FT(HT: 1-0)

Alonso (21'), Bareiro (50')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Bolivia 0-3 Argentina
Tuesday, September 12 at 9pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Venezuela 1-0 Paraguay
Tuesday, September 12 at 11pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

We said: Argentina 3-0 Paraguay

All eyes will be on whether Lionel Messi is passed fit to feature on Friday, but even if the 36-year-old is not involved, Argentina will be regarded as firm favourites to come out on top. Paraguay have frustrated Argentina over the years, but we believe that the world champions have enough quality in their side to pick up maximum points against a goal-shy Albirroja outfit. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 85.6%. A draw had a probability of 10.9% and a win for Paraguay had a probability of 3.45%.

The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (14.96%) and 1-0 (12.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.84%), while for a Paraguay win it was 0-1 (1.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Argentina would win this match.

Result
ArgentinaDrawParaguay
85.6% (-0.73099999999999 -0.73) 10.95% (0.521 0.52) 3.45% (0.2069 0.21)
Both teams to score 29.65% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.86% (-1.297 -1.3)41.14% (1.292 1.29)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.46% (-1.33 -1.33)63.54% (1.327 1.33)
Argentina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
93.07% (-0.42200000000001 -0.42)6.93% (0.418 0.42)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
74.57% (-1.134 -1.13)25.42% (1.129 1.13)
Paraguay Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
31.86% (0.206 0.21)68.14% (-0.21000000000001 -0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
5.72% (0.076899999999999 0.08)94.28% (-0.081000000000003 -0.08)
Score Analysis
    Argentina 85.58%
    Paraguay 3.45%
    Draw 10.95%
ArgentinaDrawParaguay
2-0 @ 16.82% (0.22 0.22)
3-0 @ 14.96% (-0.16 -0.16)
1-0 @ 12.6% (0.45 0.45)
4-0 @ 9.99% (-0.33 -0.33)
2-1 @ 6.45% (0.135 0.14)
3-1 @ 5.74% (-0.011 -0.01)
5-0 @ 5.33% (-0.309 -0.31)
4-1 @ 3.83% (-0.097 -0.1)
6-0 @ 2.37% (-0.196 -0.2)
5-1 @ 2.05% (-0.101 -0.1)
3-2 @ 1.1% (0.006 0.01)
6-1 @ 0.91% (-0.067 -0.07)
7-0 @ 0.91% (-0.097 -0.1)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 85.58%
1-1 @ 4.84% (0.21 0.21)
0-0 @ 4.72% (0.272 0.27)
2-2 @ 1.24% (0.036 0.04)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 10.95%
0-1 @ 1.81% (0.118 0.12)
1-2 @ 0.93% (0.047 0.05)
Other @ 0.72%
Total : 3.45%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Bolivia 0-3 Argentina
Tuesday, September 12 at 9pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Argentina 1-0 Ecuador
Friday, September 8 at 1am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Indonesia 0-2 Argentina
Monday, June 19 at 1.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Argentina 2-0 Australia
Thursday, June 15 at 1pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Argentina 7-0 Curacao
Wednesday, March 29 at 12.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Argentina 2-0 Panama
Thursday, March 23 at 11.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Venezuela 1-0 Paraguay
Tuesday, September 12 at 11pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Paraguay 0-0 Peru
Thursday, September 7 at 11.30pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Paraguay 2-0 Nicaragua
Sunday, June 18 at 3.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Chile 3-2 Paraguay
Tuesday, March 28 at 1.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Colombia 2-0 Paraguay
Sunday, November 20 at 1.20am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Peru 1-0 Paraguay
Thursday, November 17 at 1am in International Friendlies


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