Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heidenheim win with a probability of 42.93%. A win for Nuremberg had a probability of 32.15% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heidenheim win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest Nuremberg win was 0-1 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heidenheim would win this match.
