Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 50.61%. A win for Western United had a probability of 25.4% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Western United win was 0-1 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
