Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 39.04%. A win for Western United had a probability of 37.32% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.85%) and 2-0 (5.46%). The likeliest Western United win was 1-2 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Central Coast Mariners would win this match.